I Want to Believe
Vain as the next guy, I wrote a little something about myself to put in my home page. One of the items I mention is that I believe in extraterrestrials, even though I am a skeptic and science enthusiast. In a bit of flippancy, I challenged readers to ask me why I believe in ETs. Many years later, a new grad student took me up on the challenge, so I decided to explain my thoughts in this entry.
Why I believe can best be summarized by the X-Files famous sentence “I want to believe.” There is nothing more or less to the story. Sure, I can point out that the scientific consensus is leaning towards the possibility of extraterrestrial life–but then in fairness I would also have to point out that the evidence points mostly to unicellular life, not the advanced civilizations capable of communication a la SETI. And sure, I could point to the galaxy and argue that as vast as it is in space and time, it would be ridiculous if earth was the only inhabited planet (Fermi’s paradox be damned). But then the chemists and biologists would bring out the evidence for the amazing coincidences that were necessary to bring about an advanced technologically savvy species here on earth.
So let’s just be content with saying that “I want to believe.” There. That’s it.
But it’s not so simple. Why not believe that we are all living in a jar of Tang? Or why not cling to the belief that the world will end next week when the magnetic fields reverse polarity bringing about wild tectonic shifts (or what have you). Why not say “I want to believe” to these ideas?
More importantly, why not say “‘I want to believe’ that the Hutu are better than the Tutsi”? Such beliefs have caused great misery in our history. Other false beliefs can hurt us in a number of smaller ways. For example, if you believe that you are unattractive, you may lock yourself up in your room, never meeting anybody that can change your mind.
How can we accept some beliefs on the basis of want but not others? One solution to this conundrum is to avoid any irrational beliefs. If you believe only what can be determined on the basis of rationality (e.g., what can be accepted as “scientific truth”), then you will avoid such harmful beliefs as the superiority of Hutus or the need to exterminate Shias. But I just don’t buy this. I think there are lots and lots of beliefs that have no scientific basis, but that are nevertheless worthwhile or at least not harmful. Take, for example, the Christmas Spirit. Is there such a thing? Why should people be particularly cheerful when the Pleiades are in opposition to the sun? But ask yourself: does it hurt to believe in the Christmas Spirit?
I propose that we humans hold many irrational beliefs. Some believe in astrology, telepathy, biorythms, gods, the benefits of herbal supplements–you name it. By and large, these beliefs do no harm, so I would hold anyone who believes in them blameless. And there is the first criterion: If your belief does no harm, then by all means feel free to believe if you want.
If only it were that easy! I want to make a distinction between unfounded and bogus beliefs. Unfounded beliefs are irrational in that there is no basis for having them. However, there is also no real reason to disbelieve them. Take panspermia, for example: the belief that life on earth originated elsewhere and that the “seeds” of this life were delivered to earth from interstellar space. Maybe it’s true, and maybe it isn’t. I don’t know of a definite answer one way or the other (although some computer simulations indicate any known mechanism for spreading the “seeds” would be too slow even on a cosmic scale). Although the scientific consensus on panspermia may be “doubtful”, it does remain a possibility. On the other hand, take the idea that the earth was created less than 10,000 years ago. We have a wealth of evidence that the earth is billions of years old, so this is no longer open to opinion. If you believe the earth is less than 10,000 years old, you are wrong. The mistake may be harmless, but it’s still wrong. And by clinging to this mistake, you are either being ignorant (which is OK) or you are choosing to disbelieve in the scientific method which is not–because choosing not to believe in the scientific method causes real harm. There is our second criterion: An irrational belief is acceptable only if it has not already been invalidated by observation or other rational basis.
I struggled with these ideas as a young graduate student. I disliked irrational beliefs and blamed them for many of our problems. And yet I struggled with the knowledge that many people I respect held such beliefs deeply. How could as intelligent a person as my Ph.D. advisor be a devout Catholic? I wondered. The same holds true for any religion. They all take a leave from common sense along the way in favor of faith, what writers refer to as “suspension of disbelief”. And the suspension of disbelief that the major faiths require of their members is far more than what even the most speculative writers expect of their readers. I mean, a talking bush? A talking, burning bush? A talking, burning bush that doesn’t consume itself? Come on! Yet many, many intelligent people throughout time have been deeply religious, like Einstein and Newton. And while many heinous deeds have been committed in the name of religion, most religious people I’ve met are sincere, happy, and, well, harmless. I came to realize that for many belief was really a matter of choice. Yes, they knew their beliefs were irrational, even unlikely, but they liked them anyway. Their beliefs made them happy. And there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that–as long as you abide by my two principles above. When I understood that, I set out to find my own irrational belief.
There you have it. I choose to believe in ETs because ETs have not been ruled out by science, because believing in ETs does me or anybody else no great harm, and because I think the universe is a happier place if we share it with other intelligences. May your irrational beliefs bring you as much joy and as little harm to yourself and others as my belief in ETs.