The Global Positioning Web
Technologies affect us, what we do, how we think, even how we view ourselves. Each new technology brings with it change, and with the change there are winners and losers.
Transportation, for example, affects the shape and growth of cities. Many businesses are located just off a freeway exit, and, judging from the billboards, they derive much of their fortune from the drivers who can be induced to stop and dine or shop. And a little further in, just a few minutes off the freeway, can be other businesses that struggle to attract customers. But all this is about to change, thanks to GPS technology.
GPS technology is not new, but so far its impact has been limited. This is because some technologies need pervasiveness to make their mark. Only after enough people have access to it, can others depend on the new technology. This explains why today a business can assume that their customers have a cell phone, even an email address, and why a customer can expect to find useful information in a company’s website. Everyone has a cell phone and access to email, and every business has a presence on the web. GPS technology is not this pervasive yet, but as more cars are sold with GPS units in the dashboard, it is quickly getting there.
The biggest impact from GPS technology will an erosion of the realtor’s mantra: location, location, and location. As drivers find it easier to exit and reenter the freeway, business will no longer need to be located just outside the exit ramps to attract customers. And customers will be freer to find businesses a little off the ramps. Consequently, “easy-on, easy-off” locations will no longer be able to justify high real estate prices, and businesses there will be unable to pass those costs on to consumers. This could mean the end of premium prices for gasoline near the freeway.
But that’s only the beginning. The impact of the GPS can be much more pronounced. Billboards will disappear. Their primary purpose today is to alert drivers to local opportunities for lodging, dining, or shopping. But this same information can be delivered more efficiently by a GPS. The GPS can display ads of any nearby businesses, and changing the ads would be a simple matter of updating the GPS database, which is much simpler than modifying a billboard. As ads become cheaper and easier to build, more like internet ads today than billboards, more business will be able to use them. And this means more options for consumers.
Initially, businesses will have the upper hand, as they reach consumers with a new advertising medium. But this won’t last. Soon, consumers will be in control. As the GPS learns its driver’s personal preferences–it does know where and when the car stops, after all–it can display more targeted ads. My GPS, for example, would discover that I like to stop at bookstores, so it could display advertising from any nearby bookstores. And many consumers will explicitly tell their GPS brand preferences or share positive or negative experiences. With this information, the GPS can narrow the ads even more, perhaps promoting a nearby Subway instead of Burger King.
The next step is but a small one. The GPS can take into account not just each driver’s individual preference, but everyone’s preferences at once. At a minimum, this will take the form of ratings. A highly rated restaurant will be recommended more often, for example. But with a little more work, ads and suggestions can be tailored even more to individual preferences. Amazon.com has already shown the way with personalized recommendations. My GPS could tell me, “Other people who stop at Bookpeople have also enjoyed shopping at Tattered Cover, coming up on the next exit.” With the help of GPS technology, Amazon-style ratings and recommendations will be coming to our cars.
How will these changes affect us? We cannot predict the future, but we can hope that it unfolds a certain way. Our freeways may become less cluttered, more pleasant. Our cities can spread away from the main freeways, carving out more room for parks and playgrounds. Most of all, we can hope that as we leave the freeway more often, drawn to places our GPS expects us to like, we will meet new people, much like ourselves. In the end, the GPS in our cars may make our world more familiar, more pleasant, and much smaller.